The world of college football is abuzz with anticipation as we approach the 2026 season, and one of the most intriguing storylines revolves around the potential for FCS teams to upset Power Four opponents. It's been a while since we witnessed such a shock, and the landscape of college football has evolved significantly.
The Widening Gap
The talent disparity between the FBS and FCS levels is becoming more pronounced, and this trend is largely driven by the transfer portal and NIL opportunities. Top players are increasingly drawn to the FBS level, making it tougher for FCS programs to retain their stars. Since 2022, the win rate for FBS power conference teams against FCS opponents has skyrocketed, standing at an impressive 223-2. This shift is undeniable, and it poses a significant challenge for FCS teams aiming to pull off upsets.
The Rare Upsets
While upsets have become rarer, they still capture the imagination of fans and pundits alike. Sacramento State's victory over Stanford in 2023 stands as a recent example, but it's been a dry spell since then. The transfer of successful FCS programs like Sacramento State and North Dakota State to the FBS level further highlights the talent migration.
The 2026 Contenders
As we scan the 2026 schedule, several FCS teams stand out as potential upset-makers. South Dakota State, fresh off back-to-back FCS national championships, will face Northwestern, a team with a history of falling to FCS opponents. Youngstown State, led by the talented Beau Brungard, could give Kentucky a run for its money. North Dakota, with its dual-threat quarterback and All-American edge rusher, might give Nebraska a scare. These matchups offer a glimmer of hope for FCS fans yearning for a breakthrough.
The X-Factors
Several factors could influence the outcome of these games. Coaching changes, as seen at Nebraska with Matt Rhule, can bring new energy but also uncertainty. Transfer classes, like the one at Tennessee Tech, can bolster FCS teams. And the performance of star quarterbacks, such as Chris Parson of Austin Peay, could be pivotal. These variables add an element of unpredictability to the equation.
The Broader Perspective
The decline in FCS upsets reflects a broader trend in college football. The sport is becoming increasingly stratified, with top programs pulling away from the rest. This trend is not unique to college football; it's a phenomenon seen in other sports and industries. The question is, how can we maintain competitiveness and excitement in a landscape where resources and talent are concentrated at the top?
In my view, the answer lies in embracing the underdog narrative. Fans love a good David vs. Goliath story, and FCS teams have the potential to provide those thrilling moments. While the odds may be stacked against them, the possibility of an upset keeps the sport exciting. It's a delicate balance between maintaining a level playing field and allowing for the occasional Cinderella story.
As we eagerly await the 2026 season, let's not discount the potential for FCS teams to rise to the occasion. In the world of college football, where anything can happen on a Saturday, the next upset could be just around the corner. Personally, I can't wait to see if any FCS teams can defy the odds and make history.
